Silver just did something no precious metals investor loves to see: it hit a new low for the year. Early Friday, silver slipped below $54 for the first time in 2026, down 2% on the day to $53.89 as of 9:30 a.m. EDT. Gold also moved lower, with gold futures down 0.5% Friday morning to $4,040.50, hovering near a three-month low.
If you own metals directly, hold a gold or silver fund in your portfolio, or you just watch these prices as a signal for inflation, the “why” matters. This week, the story has a lot to do with oil, plus a broader risk-off move across markets.
What’s pushing silver and gold down
One major pressure point has been the jump in energy prices. Ole S. Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, attributed the weakness in metals to the “inflationary impact of rising energy prices.” When oil spikes, it can feed inflation fears, which tends to complicate the outlook for interest rates and real yields. That matters because higher rates typically create headwinds for metals.
Hansen also noted silver has been underperforming gold lately. Even with gold holding up better than silver, he said gold is still “heading for its steepest weekly decline in several months and potentially its weakest weekly close since November.”
There is also a broader market angle. Justin Lin, an analyst at Global X ETFs, described the current move as a “liquidity-driven selloff” that “tends to happen in sharp market downturns,” alongside declines this week in tech stocks and major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Oil is surging
Oil prices rose again early Friday, with Brent crude up nearly 2% to above $115, the highest level in five months.
The move comes amid rising conflict in Saudi Arabia, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia. A Houthi strike on a Saudi airport this week killed at least two people, with Houthis also saying they targeted the Saudi defense ministry in Riyadh and oil facilities in Yanbu. The attacks prompted the United States to pull diplomats from the country and Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil company to tell employees to work remotely.
Zooming out on the slide
Silver’s drop is especially noticeable because of how hot the metal was earlier this year. Silver is now not only at a year-to-date low, but also its lowest level since November 2025. And it is a long way from the all-time high above $120 reached in January.
Gold’s pullback looks similar in spirit, even if the day-to-day moves are smaller. Gold and silver are both well below their January highs. Silver is now at less than half of its record-high price above $120, and gold is far off from the $5,600 peak it hit earlier this year.
Part of the bigger story is how quickly sentiment can turn. Prices crashed after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as his pick to lead the Federal Reserve, as Warsh was considered a monetary policy hawk. Prices have also generally declined throughout the Iran war as oil prices have surged.
Where the Fed fits in
Interest rate expectations can swing metals quickly, so it’s worth watching what markets think the Fed will do next. CME Group’s FedWatch tool put the odds of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s late October meeting at 9.4%, versus a 90.6% chance rates hold steady.
Those probabilities have been bouncing around. Earlier this month, rate-hike odds jumped above 50% after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing inflation remained elevated in September. Hansen said earlier this month that a hike in October would be “highly controversial,” pointing to the meeting’s proximity to the midterm elections and “political sensitivity surrounding monetary policy.”
Market pricing has shown higher odds later. The FedWatch tool indicated close to an 80% chance of higher rates in December.
My money take
I’m not a fan of reacting to one rough week, or one scary headline, by flipping your whole strategy. Metals can move fast, and they often move for multiple reasons at once: inflation expectations, rates, market liquidity, and geopolitical shocks.
If you already own gold or silver
- Check your allocation, not the daily price. If metals are a small slice of your portfolio, a drop like this can be uncomfortable but manageable.
- Decide what role metals play for you. Are you holding as a long-term diversifier, or were you chasing the rally? Your next step depends on that answer.
- Be careful with “averaging down” out of frustration. If you add, do it because it fits your plan, not because you want to “get back” to a previous price.
If you don’t own metals but you’re watching inflation
- Use this as a reminder to review your budget for energy-sensitive spending. When oil spikes, the stuff that hits your wallet first is usually gas, shipping, and anything with transport baked into the price.
- Keep your emergency fund boring and accessible. Volatility weeks are when cash cushions matter most.
Quick recap
- Silver fell 2% Friday morning to $53.89, dropping below $54 for the first time this year.
- Gold futures dipped 0.5% to $4,040.50, near a three-month low.
- Analysts pointed to rising oil and inflation pressure, plus a liquidity-driven market selloff.
- Brent crude climbed above $115, up nearly 2% early Friday, amid rising conflict in Saudi Arabia involving Houthi attacks.
- Prices crashed after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, as Warsh was seen as a monetary policy hawk.
- CME Group’s FedWatch showed a 9.4% chance of an October hike and around an 80% chance of higher rates in December.